AI 摘要
本周全球主要央行利率预期出现明显变化，RBNZ预期加息62个基点，其余央行普遍维持利率不变。油价下跌和通胀数据降温是主要原因，预计夏季将保持平静，等待更多数据以决定未来政策。
原文内文
Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 62 bps (82% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) Fed: 30 bps (83% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 24 bps (72% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoJ: 20 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 18 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA: 10 bps (85% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoC: 8 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting) SNB: 5 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) Last week's market pricing here We can see that we got some further dovish repricing almost across the board this week. The main culprits were oil prices falling below pre-war levels and inflation data showing further cooling in June. The RBNZ is the only major central bank expected to hike in the summer but they might deliver a dovish hike given the quick drop in energy prices. For the other central banks, it looks like it's going to be a tranquil summer waiting for more data and then deciding on the next moves from September onwards. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.